The changing of the guard is occurring because the age-standardized mortality rate – the number of deaths per 100,000 population – for cardiovascular disease fell by 16 per cent between 2000 and 2004, while it fell only 4 per cent for cancer during the corresponding period.
“Both rates are going down, but one is going down a lot faster – about four times as fast,” said Shiang Ying Dai, a senior analyst in Statscan's health statistics division.
In 2004, an estimated 72,338 people died of cardiovascular disease, compared with 66,947 of cancer.
Given the trend lines, however, those positions will soon be reversed, although precisely when is not known.
“We don't do projections,” Ms. Dai said. “We just report the facts.”
But Andreas Wielgosz, a spokesman for the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, said, “those are 2004 numbers, so we've probably already done the crossover.”
He said that, by and large, this is good news, proof that prevention and treatment are both improving.
Dr. Wielgosz, an Ottawa cardiologist, said sharp declines in smoking rates are probably one of the biggest factors, along with better treatments that are available for heart disease and stroke.
But he cautioned that the public should not become complacent, noting that, between them, cardiovascular disease and cancer account for three in every five deaths in Canada, and they have common risk factors.
“Our goal is to prevent disease and we can't lose sight of that goal,” he said.
Paul Lapierre, group director for public affairs at the Canadian Cancer Society, said the “new numbers sound alarming, but it's kind of expected.”
He said cancer is a disease of aging, so, given the aging population, cancer will remain a major killer. The good news is the individual risk of cancer is not higher today than it was a decade ago.
He said that while consumer groups compete for government money, donations from the public and media attention, the No. 1 position on the mortality chart will not confer any particular advantage.
“Cancer is taken seriously in this country and so is cardiovascular disease,” he said. “I really wouldn't call it a competition. There's actually a lot of collaboration.”
The new data were published yesterday in a 142-page report entitled Mortality, Summary List of Causes 2004.
According to Statscan, 114,513 males and 112,071 females died in 2004. The age-standardized mortality rate was 710 per 100,000 population for males and 466 per 100,000 for females. The gap between the death rate of men and women has fallen markedly over the last generation.